RCKS Talk

15-Feb-2019

Bonterra Resources Inc

Drilling Continues to Expand Gladiator

Impact: Mildly Positive

Results from Bonterra’s ongoing drilling program demonstrate the significant expansion potential of this deposit, beyond the ~2Moz that we believe already exists. With a mill in-place and a basket of growing deposits, we believe the company is likely to be the first company in production in the rapidly growing Urban-Barry camp.

Highlights:
  • Gladiator continues to grow. Step out holes at Gladiator extend the North and Rivage zones to the Southwest where the company is encountering the same distinctive sphalerite mineralization as seen at the main Gladiator deposit. The extension which dips to the east, was intersected near surface (<150m) returning highlights of 40.2g/t Au over 2m (BA-19-09) and 20.7g/t Au over 1.5m (BA-19-07). These results are step-outs from the portion of the deposit that we believe contains up to 2Moz. 
  • Titan is further away, but more of the same. The company is still developing an understanding of the newly discovered Titan target where it hit a quartz vein stockwork mineralization with many similarities to Gladiator. Results intersected high-grades highlighting 7g/t Au over 2m (BA-19-01) and the the structure remains unconstrained in all directions. Results to date suggest that, together with Coliseum, Gladiator’s strike could span as much as 5km (a 3.8x increase over the current footprint). 
  • Assembling the pieces for the Urban Barry camp. With an expansion planned for the Urban Barry Mill in H1/19, the company is well positioned with multiple growing deposits, to quickly become the next Canadian producer. We highlight that operating assets in Canada of this scale (100 to 200k oz/year), have been prime takeover targets in recent years, suggesting to us that Bonterra is on the cusp of becoming an endangered species.

Valuation: 
Mill expansion and coming resource update show this company’s fundamental value is ahead of its current pricing. Based on currently reported resources for Gladiator, Barry and Bachelor, Bonterra trades at US$42/oz, a premium to peers but once we factor in our estimate of ~C$50M for the Urban-Barry mill, and what we estimate could be a ~2M oz Au deposit at Gladiator, Bonterra would trade at a substantial discount to peers at US$13/oz. Upcoming catalysts include, 1) Ongoing exploration results. 
13-Feb-2019

Red Pine Exploration Inc

Surluga Results Bode Well for Update

Impact: Positive

Drilling results announced today by Red Pine at Surluga validate the company’s geological model and suggest the company is on track for Surluga resource update in Q2 2019. We continue to believe the Wawa Gold Corridor hosts a large gold system and that Red Pine is positioned to deliver multiple gold discoveries.

Highlights:
  • More good grades/widths from Surluga. Red Pine continues to demonstrate drilling success at Surluga – this bodes well for the upcoming resource update. Hole SD-18-241 targeted gaps within the resource envelope and returned 4.9g/t Au over 16.3m and so should be additive. Infill Hole SD-18-235 was confirmatory, returning 1.9g/t Au over 38.5m where expected within the deposit.
  • Results validate model. Continued drilling success at Surluga and Minto South suggests Red Pine’s improved understanding of controls on mineralization is paying dividends. Importantly, these insights could be applied in the future to more efficiently grow resources both at Surluga and Minto South and at other emerging high-grade structures, such as the Hornblende Zone or the recently identified Cooper Structure.
  • Surluga resource update on the way. We expect the upcoming Surluga resource update expected in Q2 2019 to be designed with a bulk underground mining operation in mind, given vein thicknesses have ranged between 3m to 30m at grades above 3 g/t Au. We note that much of the Surluga deposit is proximal to historic workings which should help reduce future development costs of an underground mining project at Surluga.
Valuation:
Red Pine trades at US$11/oz AuEq versus peers at US$38/oz AuEq, despite ongoing exploration success. We note that the company is well funded with roughly  C$5M in cash to fund its ongoing drill program and we expect ongoing exploration success to close the valuation gap to peers. Additionally, we view the eventual consolidation of the projects ownership structure to likely be a major catalyst for Red Pine. Upcoming catalysts include 1) Results from ongoing drilling in addition to results expected for 40 holes with assays pending at Surluga 2) Updated Surluga Resource estimate in Q2 2019 

 

13-Feb-2019

GT Gold Corp

Saddle South Results Highlight Potential

Impact: Positive

Drill results from the last of GT Gold’s 2018 drill program demonstrate a greater understanding of the geological controls of the Saddle South mineralization, which we expect to grow in 2019. Alongside the sizeable potential of Saddle North, we believe this company is working towards a meaningful epithermal gold discovery at Saddle South.

Highlights: 
  • Combination of infill and step-out holes support our view of the potential for an economic deposit. The company returned both wide high-grade intercepts (18.08g/t Au and 313.38 g/t Ag over 2.13) in the Southwest portion of Saddle Ridge and wider intervals like 1.07g/t Au over 126.2m. In our opinion, infill holes, like, TTD103 and TTD091 suggest improved continuity, while a step-out like TTD105 suggests the deposit has room to grow.  
  • Mineralization remains open in the southwest. Already approaching a scale that is potentially economic, Saddle South remains unconstrained to the southwest. With a mineralized strike of over 1300m, widths of up to 600m and depth extensions of over 600m, we believe that GT could uncover a deposit with at least 1Moz, not at the top-end of our previous range (750k-1Moz).
  • Saddle South likely underpins the valuation of the current company. With an expanded footprint at Saddle South, and gold North American exploration company’s trading at C$50/oz, this suggests to us that Saddle South has a potential value of ~C$50M which compares to GT Gold’s current market cap of C$68.6M. While we understand why the management and market is focused on the much larger Saddle North project in our view, Saddle South provides a back-stop value for GT Gold.
Valuation: 
Despite a ~14% increase since the end of January lows, GT Gold’s value still does not properly reflect Saddle North. As highlighted in our recent note on the potential of Saddle North, we believe that it could easily deliver an NPV of over $2B. Taking that into account, the necessary capital spend to move this project forward, we believe the company is substantially undervalued at C$73M market cap. This is particularly true, when considering our view that there we believe Saddle South is worth ~C$50M. Upcoming catalysts include 1) Compilation of 2018 exploration work for Saddle North and South (Q1/19) 2) 2019 exploration plans (Q2/19) and 3) Restart of Exploration (Q2/19).

 

12-Feb-2019

Aurion Resources Ltd

Aurion Delivers Another High-Potential Target

Impact: Positive

Highlights from Aurion’s newly prospected Launi project, located to the south of its flagship Risti asset, further demonstrate the scale of undiscovered potential across the Company’s tenure in the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt. Our fair value estimates, reflective of continued exploration success, value Aurion’s shares at C$2.29/share with upside potential to C$5.57/share.

Highlights:
  • Visible gold in grab samples and outcrops at new target. Preliminary reconnaissance across the East Launi project, located within 10km of the company’s more advanced Risti Project and along strike to the Sirkka Shear Zone – a known deposit generator, delivered both outcrop visible gold assaying up to 379g/ Au in quartz boulder and outcrop for an average grade of 2.47g/t Au over 2km2. Uniquely, East Launi is the company’s first target to return visible gold in grab samples and outcrop without trenching.
  • Progressing multiple targets. Aurion acquired the East Launi Exploration Licence in early 2019 and the property has no history of exploration making it the newest, and least explored target to date. While it is very early days, the property adds untapped exploration opportunity to the company’s pipeline of assets while it continues to drill at its flagship Risti project where it recently drilled 42g/t Au over 4m.
  • Major discovery in Finland is coming. This update is an example of the widely under-explored potential of Finland’s Central Lapland Greenstone Belt. We continue to believe that a major discovery is coming as drills are turning across multiple targets, as highlighted in our recent report . With exceptional infrastructure, a mining culture and favourable mining policy, Finland is poised to become an emerging mining jurisdiction.
Valuation: 

Further exploration success should bring Aurion closer to our estimates. We continue to believe that Aurion’s shares are currently worth C$2.29/share (unchanged) with upside potential to C$5.57/share (unchanged). Our fair value estimate is based on our probability-based valuation method that incorporates three possible scenarios adjusted for the time and capital to achieve each scenario. Upcoming Catalysts include 1) Further assay results from Aamurusko (Q1/19) and 2) Follow-up exploration from Notches, YNot and East Launi  H1/19).

 

12-Feb-2019

De Grey Mining Ltd

Higher Recoveries Increase Preliminary Estimates

Impact: Mildly Positive

Recent metallurgical test results from De Grey outlined a straightforward flowsheet for the Pilbara Gold Project with improved recoveries resulting in at least a 10% increase in our preliminary estimated valuation. We expect further resource growth and continued improvement of potential mine economics to make De Grey a target for mid-tier producers.

Highlights:
    • Improved process for better recoveries. Results from the testing yielded average recoveries of 94%, 92% and 90% for oxide, free milling and pyrite dominated sulphide material respectively across samples collected from select deposits within the Pilbara Gold Project (PGP). This is an improvement over the average 86% recoveries outlined in the scoping study and we estimate the incremental capex to increase recoveries is likely to be ~US$10M. The company is continuing metallurgical testing to further optimize the flowsheet for its multiple deposits.
    • Improved recoveries increase our estimated valuation by ~10%. The increase in recovery supports our view that the project should be economic. Only assuming a recovery increase to 90% (62% of current resource is fresh/sulphide material) improves our preliminary estimates by ~10%. If we were to assume 92% recovery, which gives some credit for the better recoveries of the oxide and fresh material our preliminary estimates increase by ~15%. 
    • Coming news should emphasize large scale potential. The combination of the recent resource update, and drilling success, particularly at Withnell Deep suggests to us that a larger scale project than the (1M tpa or ~60k oz/year) is likely for PGP. Additionally, the company is continuing to drill at the Withnell deposit (40% of PGP resources), a program that has been underway since January with the specific goal of defining an underground resource at this deposit.  
    Valuation:
    Valuation does not reflect Pilbara Gold Projects potential. Our preliminary estimate for De Grey’s hard rock assets is A$0.30-0.45/share. These estimates do not account for the recovery improvement, the exploration upside on the hard rock targets or the optionality the company has with its conglomerate targets. We believe that as the company demonstrates the exploration upside and scale potential of PGP, it is likely to become a takeout target for larger peers. Upcoming catalysts: 1) Ongoing exploration results.

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