Tuesday, November 07, 2017 Derek Macpherson

CG’s Bid Leaves Room for Another Bidder on AMI

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Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) has announced a friendly all-cash bid for AuRico Metals (TSX:AMI) at a price of C$1.80 per AMI share, which represents a premium of 38.5% to yesterday’s close for a total transaction value of C$310M. In our view this bid undervalues AuRico’s diverse assets (development assets and royalty portfolio) which leaves room for another bidder. We believe Aurico’s assets are worth more than $2/share (Figure 1); however, the diverse nature of them is likely to require a joint bid from a royalty and operating company. Consequently, we consider the odds of another bid to be ~30% (medium).  read more

Sunday, July 17, 2016 Derek Macpherson

Failed Coup Raises Risk for Projects in Turkey

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On Friday, there was an attempted coup of the Turkish government. While the coup was quickly thwarted by government forces, effectively maintaining the status quo; in our view this has increased the risk profile for foreign mining companies operating in Turkey. We expect that this increased risk is likely to negatively impact the stocks Monday morning. Those that essentially have pure-play exposure, like Alacer Gold (TSX:ASR) or key projects within the country like Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD, NYSE:EGO) and Pilot Gold (TSX:PLG) are likely to be the most impacted.  read more


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