RCKS Talk

15-Aug-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Expecting a Strong H2 2018 from Anaconda

Impact: Positive

We are reiterating our positive view on Anaconda Mining as we enter H2 2018 and following the termination of the takeover bid for Maritime Resources (TSXV:MAE).

  • Going into H2 2018, Anaconda continues to exceed expectations
  • While actively drilling Goldboro, the clock starts ticking on permitting
  • Higher grades expected from recently developed Stog’er Tight pit
  • Anaconda continues to trade at a significant discount to peers.
Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.28x NAV, peers 0.61x); ongoing exploration at Goldboro and Argyle and improved cash flow in H2 2018 should close the gap to peers.

02-Aug-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Solid Q2 Financials; Set-up for Strong H2 2018

Impact: Positive

Anaconda releases financial results for Q2 2018 with higher than expected revenue and lower operating cash costs.

  • Anaconda significantly beats on costs in Q2 and lowers 2018 cost guidance.
  • Continued strong operational performance expected from Point Rousse in H2 2018
  • Strong cash balance of C$7.9M going into H2 2018
Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.31x NAV, peers 0.70x); ongoing exploration at Goldboro and Argyle and improved cash flow in H2 2018 should close the gap to peers.

01-Aug-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda Takes Next Step at Goldboro

Impact: Mildly Positive

Anaconda Mining has received the permits to proceed with the extraction of a 10,000-tonne underground bulk sample at the Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia, which we view as an important de-risking step for the project as it progresses towards production.

  • The bulk sample is a key a de-risking step for Goldboro as it is expected to help Anaconda confirm the resource model, which is key as the project is progressed towards feasibility and ultimately into production
  • Results from the bulk sample are expected to take four months. In the interim, we expect drill results from both Point Rousse (5,000m program) and Goldboro (10,000m program) to be catalysts for the stock
  • Q2 2018 financial results are expected in the near-term. Recall the company had a strong Q2 operational and we expect that to translate into solid financial results. We currently model revenue of C$33.5M, CFPS of C$0.013 for Q2 2018
Anaconda continues to trade at a discount to peers (0.31x NAV, peers 0.57x). We continue to believe that upcoming catalysts, including ongoing operating execution, ongoing exploration results from both Goldboro and Point Rouse and advancing Goldboro as important catalysts to close the valuation gap to peers.

26-Jul-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Continued Drilling Success at Goldboro Points to Resource Growth

Impact: Mildly Positive

Anaconda Mining has announced the final assay results from the company’s 11,588m diamond drilling program that began in October of last year at its Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia. The release includes the results of two holes covering 1,139m, which successfully targeted extensions of the East Goldbrook (EG) and Boston Richardson (BR) Gold Systems within section 9000E.
  • Highlight intersections from the two holes include: 63.88g/t Au over 1.0m (BR-18-41), 77.69g/t Au over 0.5m and 6.05g/t Au over 3.7m
  • This round of drilling in the EG system has discovered previously unmodeled mineralized zones up-plunge in the section and at BR the system was extended 250m at depth to a total of 525m and remains open
  • Between the two gold systems 10 sections have been drilled to date, with the gold hosting structure was present in all areas tested for a total strike length of 700m; all these results are planned to be included in a future mineral resource update
  • Results continue to demonstrate the continuity of the deposit and suggest resource growth is likely with the next update – 10% increase in both grade and tonnes at Goldboro would increase our overall NAVPS estimate by 9%
Anaconda continues to trade at a discount to peers (0.29x NAV, peers 0.59x). We continue to believe that upcoming catalysts, including ongoing operating execution, ongoing exploration results from both Goldboro and Point Rouse and advancing Goldboro as important catalysts to close the valuation gap to peers.

12-Jul-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Q2 Production Beats Estimates; Withdraws Bid

Impact: Positive

Anaconda Mining Inc. (TSX:ANX) has announced Q2 2018 production results which were ahead of our expectations. In addition, Anaconda announced the withdrawal of its bid for Maritime Resources, which should remove the arbitration overhang.
  • Anaconda produced 4,632oz and sold 4,330oz in Q2, exceeding our estimate of 3,439oz of Au by 26% (Figure 1). The beat was as a result of better than expected grades, however this includes processing low-grade stockpiled ore from the Pine Cove pit and the company is expecting even higher grades in H2 2018 as ore feed becomes predominately sourced from Stog’er Tight
  • The Pine Cove Mill achieved record throughput of 121,299t (1,350tpd) exceeding our estimate of 1,300 tpd. The average head grade of 1.38g/t was ahead of our our estimate for 1.10g/t Au
  • With 8,856oz produced in H1 2018, the company is on track to beat 2018 guidance of 18,000oz Au, particular since we expect better grades in H2 2018 as the transition to Stog’er Tight is completed. We now model 20,230oz in 2018 (was 19,220oz)
  • As a result of this operational beat we now model revenue of C$33.5M (was C$31.5M), CFPS of C$0.013 (was C$0.0042) for Q2 2018 and a quarter end cash balance of C$9.4 M (was C$8.8M). Our estimate includes the recent ~C$4.5M equity financing, which is expected to fund an aggressive exploration program at Point Rouse and Goldboro
As a result of Anaconda withdrawing its bid for Maritime Resources and beating our Q2 production estimate, we have revised our NAVPS for Anaconda to C$1.00/sh (was C$1.11/sh). The exclusion of Maritime’s Green Bay property from our NAV was partially offset by stronger operating results from Point Rousse in Q2. The company remains attractively valued trading at 0.36x NAV (peers 0.70x).

10-Jul-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda Rescinds Increased Offer; Original Offer Still Valid

Impact: Negative

Anaconda Mining has announced that it has rescinded its proposal to increase, by ~28%, the take-over bid for Maritime Resources Corp. (TSXV:MAE). The announcement follows the closing of Maritime’s private placement of C$1.4M, which results in dilution to current Maritime shareholders by over 23%.
  • Anaconda will proceed with its initial take-over bid of 0.39 Anaconda shares per Maritime share, a 28% premium to Maritime’s previous close of C$0.11/share, which has been approved by Anaconda shareholders
  • Anaconda has entered into Lock-Up Agreements with Maritime shareholders holding ~10.6% of the issued and outstanding Maritime Shares, pursuant to which such Maritime Shareholders have agreed to tender their Maritime Shares in support of the Offer
  • We expect that investors in the C$1.4M private placement at C0.10/share are likely to tender their shares in order to capture the value gap between the offering price and Anaconda’s original bid
We view these new developments as negative for Anaconda and have revised our estimate of the probability of the deal being completed to 50-60% (was 60-70%). By factoring in the closed private placement into our estimates, we have decreased our NAVPS estimate to C$1.01/sh. (was C$1.11/sh.) Regardless of the completion of the takeover, the company remains attractively valued. Assuming the transaction is completed, Anaconda is trading at 0.36x NAV or if it is not completed Anaconda is trading at 0.37x NAV (peers 0.72x). We believe that a resolution of the hostile bid (either positively or negatively) is likely to lift current overhang on the share price.

05-Jul-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda Extends Mineralization at Goldboro

Impact: Positive

Anaconda Mining has released new assay results from 1,725m across 5 holes drilled at the Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia, as a part of the 11,588m drilled since October 2017. Holes targeted 8 mineralized zones of the East Goldbrook (EG) system and 8 zones of the Boston Richardson (BR) system along section 9050E (Figure 2).
  • Current drilling intersected all 8 zones of the BR system, extending it vertically by 250m (Figure 2) and was extended, along with the EG system, westward by 50m up plunge, including: 12.39g/t Au over 3.2m and 24.49g/t Au over 1.0m (Figure 1)
  • Drilling has also demonstrated the continuity of wide mineralized zones along the dominant plunge of the BR system outlining two zones (7.5m and 9.9m wide) within the same corridor as previous sections with at least 100m of mineralization (Figure 3)
  • Results continue to demonstrate the continuity of the deposit and suggest resource growth is likely with the next update – 10% increase in both grade and tonnes at Goldboro would increase our overall NAVPS estimate by 9%
Anaconda has recently announced that it will increase the takeover bid for Maritime Resources from an exchange ratio of 0.39 Anaconda shares to 0.50 Anaconda shares per Maritime share, a 28% increase. Assuming the transaction is completed, Anaconda is trading at 0.34x NAV or if it is not completed Anaconda is trading at 0.36x NAV (peers 0.69x). We believe that a resolution of the hostile bid (either positively or negatively) is likely to lift current overhang on the share price.

04-Jul-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda Bumps Up Maritime Bid

Impact: Mildly Positive

Anaconda Mining has announced that it will increase the takeover bid for Maritime Resources from an exchange ratio of 0.39 Anaconda shares to 0.50 Anaconda shares per Maritime share, a 28% increase.
  • The offer represents $0.21 per Maritime share, which equates to a premium of ~110% based on the prior day close’s share price. This sweetened offer is likely to entice additional shareholders to tender their shares
  • The increased offer is conditional on Maritime’s recently approved private placement being withdrawn. This could eliminate potential investors in that financing who were looking to capture the value gap between the offering price and Anaconda’s original bid
  • In our opinion, the increased bid has approximately the same dilutive impact as the proposed private placement; however, in this scenario the added premium would only benefit Maritime’s current shareholders
We view this new development as positive for both Anaconda and Maritime shareholders with our revised estimate of the probability of the deal being completed to 60-70% (was 40-50%). If we were to factor the revised offer into our estimates, our NAVPS estimate would decrease from the current C$1.11 to C$1.05. We are leaving our estimates unchanged at this time but are likely to update when once the increased offer is formalized. Regardless of the completion of the takeover, the company remains attractively valued. Assuming the transaction is completed, Anaconda is trading at 0.34x NAV or if it is not completed Anaconda is trading at 0.36x NAV (peers 0.69x). We believe that a resolution of the hostile bid (either positively or negatively) is likely to lift current overhang on the share price.

29-Jun-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Maritime Private Placement Approved

Impact: Mildly Negative for Anaconda

Maritime Resources has received 52% shareholder consent to approve the company’s C$1.5M proposed private placement.
  • We view this as mildly negative for Anaconda’s bid to acquire Maritime, as the management received shareholder support, and the offering increases the size of the company, implying a higher price for Anaconda shareholders – the result is that Anaconda has stated it may withdraw or revise its bid
  • This is also negative for Maritime shareholders, as there is a reduced likelihood that the Anaconda completes the transaction (as stated or at all), suggesting further downside may exist in Maritime’s share price as we believe the company is unlikely to be able build Hammerdown on its own
  • The planned financing represents 23% dilution (including warrants), for existing Maritime shareholders, significantly increasing the price for Anaconda, if the deal were completed at the previously announced exchange ratio, our NAVPS estimate for Anaconda would decrease to C$1.06 (currently C$1.11) – we have not altered our estimates at this time
Anaconda’s management has responded and indicated that it may withdraw or revise its bid, reducing the probability of the transaction being completed. Consequently, we now believe which we now estimate the probability of the deal being completed to be 40-50% (was 60-70%). Regardless of the completion of the takeover, the company remains attractively valued. Assuming the transaction is completed, Anaconda is trading at 0.32x NAV or if it is not completed Anaconda is trading at 0.36x NAV (peers 0.64x). We believe that a resolution of the hostile bid (either positively or negatively) is likely to lift current overhang on the share price.

20-Jun-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

New Exploration Program Begins at Point Rousse

Impact: Neutral

Anaconda Mining has announced plans for a summer-fall exploration and resource expansion program at the Point Rousse Project in Newfoundland. The program is expected to commence in late June and continue into the fall with drill results to be released as they come available.

  • The program is expected to consist of 5,000m of diamond drilling at priority targets at Point Rousse directed at expanding the Argyle Deposit and commencing exploration drilling at the Anoroc and Deer Cove Prospects
  • The goal of this program, is to extend the production profile at Point Rousse, which would benefit our estimates as the company only 2 years of mineral reserves and we model a 4 year mine-life
Anaconda executives hosted a live video webcast today to discuss the benefits of the Maritime takeover bid. A recording of the webcast can be found on the company’s website tomorrow. The company continues to trade at discount to peers (0.35x NAV, peers 0.64x); ongoing exploration success and the completion of the Maritime acquisition should close the gap to peers.

18-Jun-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda Drills More Holes with Better Widths

Impact: Mildly Positive

Anaconda has released results from 658m of diamond drilling across 6 new holes at the Goldboro project in Nova Scotia.

  • Highlights include: 21.05g/t Au over 11.5m and 17.41g/t Au over 7.5m, representing thicker than typical intercepts which we view as encouraging
  • Infill drilling provides validation of the existence of zones with thicker intercepts, which are located within or near open-pit limit outlined in recent PEA, which is being considered for as a potential site for a future underground bulk sample
  • Results continue to demonstrate the continuity of the deposit and suggest resource growth is likely with the next update – 10% increase in both grade and tonnes at Goldboro would increase our overall NAVPS estimate by 9%
Anaconda executives are hosting a live video webcast on Wednesday to discuss the benefits of the Maritime takeover bid. The company continues to trade at discount to peers (0.33x NAV, peers 0.64x); ongoing exploration success and the completion of the Maritime acquisition should close the gap to peers.

15-Jun-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda Improves its Odds of Completing Hostile Takeover of Maritime

Impact: Mildly Positive

 

Anaconda has received shareholder approval for the issuance of shares in connection to its proposed take-over bid for Maritime Resources.
  • This step removes a significant condition of the acquisition
  • We believe this potentially increases the odds of the acquisition being completed
Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.33x NAV, peers 0.58x); ongoing exploration success and the completion of the Maritime acquisition should close the gap to peers.

31-May-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Goldboro Continues to Grow

Impact: Mildly Positive

Anaconda has announced new assay results from four drillholes (1,043m) at its Goldboro project in Nova Scotia. The diamond drill program has totalled 9,753m since October of last year.

  • Highlights include 1.5m at 62.01g/t Au (BR-18-26), 2.5m at 23.24g/t Au (BR-18-28) and 4.5m at 7.12g/t Au (BR-18-29), which extended the mineralization of the East Goldbrook Gold System both down dip and down plunge
  • Results continue demonstrate the continuity of the deposit and suggest resource growth is likely with the next update – 10% increase in both grade and tonnes at Goldboro increases our overall NAVPS estimate by 9%
  • Despite strong exploration and operating results, Anaconda’s share price has had muted performance as a result of the ongoing hostile takeover of Maritime Resources. We believe once a there is a clear resolution to this process, Anaconda’s share price is likely to re-rate
Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.34x NAV, peers 0.65x); ongoing exploration success and the completion of the Maritime acquisition should close the gap to peers. 


16-May-2018

Maritime Resources Corp.

Maritime Adds Land; Doesn’t Alter Our View

Impact: Neutral

Maritime Resources has announced the acquisition of 3,225 ha of claims surrounding its Hammerdown asset (Figure 1).

  • Strategic land consolidation may provide incremental fundamental value; potential justifying a change to the current offer of 0.390 of a common share of Anaconda in exchange for each Maritime share
  • Share component of the acquisition (500k on signing, plus an additional 1.5 million shares through the life of the deal) could be considered an additionally dilutive tactic, similar to the previous C$1M financing as a takeover defense tactic against Anaconda
While we expect Anaconda to be displeased with the expanding share count, it’s likely a transaction it would have eventually undertaken. Therefore, we do not expect them to pull the offer and we continue to believe that the a hostile takeover proposed by Anaconda in April still has an 60-70% chance of being completed.

 

13-May-2018

RCKS Charts

Three Names with Positive Momentum

In this edition of RCKS Charts, Keith has evaluated Anaconda Mining Inc (TSX:ANX), Sierra Metals Inc. (TSX:SMT) and Ascot Resources Ltd (TSXV:AOT).

10-May-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Expands Mineralization & Extends Drill Program

Impact: Positive

Anaconda has expanded multiple mineralized zones at Goldboro through exploration drilling and has initiated an additional 2000m of drilling to test the high-grade zone around the previously identified fault system

  • High-grade drill results expand deposit in multiple directions
  • 2,000m added to program to test fault zone
  • Results point to resource growth – 10% increase in both grade and tonnes at Goldboro increases our NAVPS estimate by 9%
 
After recently incorporating Anaconda’s potential acquisition of Maritime Resources (TSXV: MAE), our NAVPS estimate increased to C$1.12/sh results in Anaconda trading at a steep discount to peers (0.33x NAV, peers 0.65x).

07-May-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda’s Response As Expected

Impact: Neutral

Anaconda has responded to statements made by Maritime in response to Anaconda’s hostile offer to acquire all the outstanding common shares of Maritime. 

  • Response is as expected and normal course, as a result this does not change our view with respect to the likelihood of the acquisition being completed (60-70%)
  • We continue to believe the current offer for 0.39 an Anaconda share for each Maritime share which represents an 26% premium based on today's (implied value C$0.14 per Maritime share) is accretive for both companies’ shareholders
  • We expect Maritime shareholders are likely to eventually support the acquisition for the significant purchase price premium and to avoid Maritime’s share price retreating to pre-offer levels
Assuming the transaction is completed, Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.32x NAV, peers 0.64x); ongoing exploration success and the completion of the Maritime acquisition should close the gap to peers.

03-May-2018

​Anaconda Mining Inc

Anaconda Releases Q1 2018 Financials

Impact: Positive

Anaconda releases financial results for Q1 2018 with higher than expected revenue and lower operating cash costs.

  • Better grades, lead to higher production and lower than expected cash costs at Point Rousse
  • Development spending at Goldboro and Point Rousse, higher than expected
  • Anaconda continues to trade at a discount to peers
Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.30x NAV, peers 0.64x); ongoing exploration success and the completion of the Maritime acquisition should close the gap to peers.

19-Apr-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Thicker High-Grade Intercepts from Goldboro

Impact: Positive

Anaconda intersected thick higher-grade zone near newly identified fault structure, expanding the gold mineralization down-dip of the existing resource.  

  • Gold mineralization extended down dip with high-grade assays
  • Impressive widths and grades as drilling intersects a new fault structure
  • Results point to resource growth – 10% increase in both grade and tonnes at Goldboro increases our NAVPS estimate by 9%
  • Drilling at Maritime’s Hammerdown intersects near-surface high-grade gold 
After recently incorporating Anaconda’s potential acquisition of Maritime Resources (TSXV: MAE), our NAVPS estimate increased to C$1.12/sh results in Anaconda trading at a steep discount to peers (0.33x NAV, peers 0.65x).

16-Apr-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Anaconda Launches Takeover Bid for Maritime

Impact: Positive

Anaconda has formalized its offer to acquire Maritime Resources Corp. (TSXV:MAE) causing us to incorporate Maritime’s Hammerdown mine in our estimates.

  • Sweetened Maritime takeover bid increases odds of completion
  • Initial production from Hammerdown expected in late 2019
  • Estimates indicate the transaction is accretive to both Anaconda and Maritime shareholders
Incorporating Hammerdown, increases our NAVPS estimate to C$1.12/sh (was C$0.97/sh) for Anaconda should the transaction be completed as defined, resulting in Anaconda trading at an increased discount to peers (0.35x NAV, peers 0.65x).

13-Apr-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Q1 Production Ahead of Estimates on Better Grades

Impact: Positive

Gold production of 4,293 ounces at Point Rousse ahead of our estimate for 3,439 ounces.

  • Production beats our estimates on better than expected grades
  • Operational execution, should help fund development and exploration activities
  • Strong quarter has Anaconda positioned to beat 2018 guidance

Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.40x NAV, peers 0.64x); ongoing exploration success should close the gap.

 

05-Apr-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Goldboro Expands to the East

Impact: Mildly Positive

Infill and expansion drilling continues to be encouraging at Goldboro, highlighting the ability to expand resources at the deposit.

  • Drilling expands Goldboro east with similar tenure of mineralization seen across the deposit
  • If Goldboro's mineable resource increases by 10% increase pre-tax NAV for the project by 9% our overall NAVPS by 2%
  • Drill success at both Point Rousse and Goldboro highlight the potential for organic growth, while the company continues to work-on growing via acquisition
 
Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.39x NAV, peers 0.63x); ongoing exploration success should close the gap.

23-Mar-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc.

Argyle Continues to Grow at Potential Higher Grades

Impact: Positive

Download Report

Infill and expansion drilling at Argyle point towards resource expansion and the potential for increased grade.

  • Drilling expands Argyle, discovers new high-grade zone.
  • Even an incremental 25% increase in Argyle’s resource grade adds value
  • Maritime has responded to Anaconda’s intention to bid; we still consider the likelihood of a merger to be 50%. 
Anaconda continues to trade at discount to peers (0.42x NAV, peers 0.65x); ongoing exploration success should close the gap.

 

01-Jan-2018

Anaconda Mining Inc. (TSX:ANX)

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